Vermont flooding: What ICE models show

Published

July 2023

ICE Flood Scores and National Weather Service Alerts across Vermont

A map of ICE Flood Scores across Vermont by census tract. A score of “5” represents the regions of highest risk, and a score of “0” the lowest. Red lines show the boundaries of active flood alerts from the National Weather Service between 07/10/2023 and 07/11/2023. The black dot is the location of Montpelier, Vermont’s capital. Source: National Weather Service and ICE Sustainable Finance 07/11/2023. Flood Alerts from the National Weather Service, available at: https://www.weather.gov

Because it does not have an ocean coastline, Vermont is not typically thought of as a state with high physical climate risk exposure. The flooding there this week is a reminder that inland flooding can be incredibly dangerous and destructive to human life and property.

Projected Annual Property Value at Risk from Inland Flooding across Vermont

The Property Value at Risk (%) across Vermont under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “business as usual” emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), projected out to 2060. Source: ICE Sustainable Finance as of 7/11/2023

The floods in Vermont are being compared to flooding from Hurricane Irene in 2011, which killed seven people and caused $700 million in damage across the state.1,2,3 ICE Climate models suggest that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “business as usual” emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), the risks associated with inland flooding across the state will increase in the upcoming decades. Source: ICE Sustainable Finance 07/11/2023.

1Stack, Liam (July 10, 2023), Officials say the flooding is the worst since Hurricane Irene, The New York Times

2Fanto, Clarence. (August 29, 2016). Tropical Storm Irene five years later: 'A lot worse than anybody thought.’ The Berkshire Eagle

3Thurston, Jack. (August 26, 2021). Learning from disaster: Vermont reflects on Tropical Storm Irene 10 years later. New England Cable News